Measurement of ‘Changing Lanes and Overtaking’ Achievement Degree in China's Industry--An Empirical Analysis of the Automotive Industry Mainstream Technology Track

我国产业“换道超车”实现程度测度研究———基于汽车产业主流技术轨道的实证分析

Abstract

Since the initiation of the reform and opening-up policy, China has pursued a development strategy characterized by following the lead of advanced economies. This approach has resulted in China's long-term positioning at the lower end of the global value chain, which is dominated by developed countries. Consequently, China has faced significant challenges in achieving upward mobility within the value chain. Currently, many of China's industries are at a critical juncture of development and transformation, among these, the new energy vehicle industry stands out as the most dynamic sector, demonstrating considerable potential for China to achieve "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" development. Therefore, grasping the critical window period for "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" and ly identifying the extent of its realization are of vital importance for China to break through the path dependency of core technologies in traditional industries and to achieve high-quality development. Based on the INNOJOY patent database, this study selects two mainstream technological trajectories within the automotive industry as research objects: the technological trajectory of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles and that of lithium battery vehicles. A comprehensive three-dimensional analytical model, incorporating the dimensions of technology, economy, and law, along with its corresponding indicator system, is constructed to conduct a multidimensional analysis of the patent information related to these technological trajectories. The entropy weight method is employed to assign weights to each indicator, reflecting their relative importance. Subsequently, the TOPSIS method is utilized to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the value of each patent. This process results in the formation of a patent quality index for each country, which is then applied to compare the patent competitive advantages among different nations. The findings reveal that in the technological trajectory of traditional ICE vehicles, the gap between China and countries with high-quality ICE vehicle patents remains substantial. This gap is evident from multiple perspectives, including the overall and newly added key core patents, as well as from the aspects of total and valid patents. As a result, it appears unlikely that China will be able to achieve technological catch-up in the short term. In contrast, in the technological trajectory of lithium battery vehicles, China ranks third in the comparison of all key core patents, trailing only the United States and Japan. When considering the total index of patent quality for valid key core patents, China has surpassed Japan and now ranks second as of July 2024, notably, the annual increment of valid key core patents has consistently ranked second from 2012 to 2017. Furthermore, from the perspective of the patent quality index across the dimensions of technology, economy, and law, China consistently ranks in the top three, and the annual increment of valid key core patents has maintained a second-place position for 5-9 consecutive years from 2012 to 2017. These results indicate that China has preliminarily achieved "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" in the automotive industry. This study provides empirical evidence and reference for latecomer countries and their latecomer industries regarding the feasibility of "Changing Lanes and Overtaking" and potential future development directions.