Structural Evolution of the Global Semiconductor Trade Network and Its Stability Assessment: From an Industry Chain Perspective

全球半导体贸易网络的结构演进及稳定性分析

Abstract

Based on global import and export trade data from the years 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this paper adopts an industry chain perspective to construct a comprehensive global semiconductor trade network encompassing three key segments: raw materials, production equipment, and components to finished products. Through an analysis of overall structure, nodal influence, and community structure, the paper delineates the structural evolution of the semiconductor trade network. Furthermore, it employs impact simulations to delve into the stability of the semiconductor trade network when subjected to different forms of shocks.The findings of this paper are as follows: (1) The global semiconductor trade network exhibits pronounced "small-world" characteristics and boasts robust connectivity. (2) The influence of traditional semiconductor powerhouses remains steadfast, but the emergence of new forces cannot be underestimated. (3) Despite the presence of a "counter-globalization" phenomenon, "globalization" continues to be the predominant trend in the global semiconductor trade network. (4) The global semiconductor trade network displays a dual nature of stability and fragility, with the trade network in the component-to-finished product segment demonstrating the highest stability. The stability of trade networks in different segments generally follows an increasing trend. This paper provides robust support for a systematic understanding of the structural evolution and stability of the global semiconductor trade network. Based on the analytical results, it is imperative for China to explore a more pragmatic path for semiconductor industry development. While striving to enhance the domestication rate, active participation in the global industrial chain and value chain division should continue to be the focal point of industrial policies.